Hello Zonal Football family! It’s Binoculars here.
We are entering the festive period with a packed midweek schedule. For today, I’ve curated a focused 5-fold accumulator that targets value in the Premier League and La Liga.
This isn’t about guessing; it’s about analyzing the context. We have title contenders needing to bounce back, relegation-threatened sides facing giants, and tricky away fixtures for top-four hopefuls.
I’ve combed through the data from Fotmob, WhoScored, and Sofascore to give you the reasoning behind every single pick. Let’s break it down.
1. Arsenal v Brentford
- Prediction: Arsenal Win (1.44)
- The Context: Arsenal sits at the top of the table but missed a massive chance to extend their lead after a 1-1 draw with Chelsea. The pressure is on Mikel Arteta to respond immediately at the Emirates.
- Team News & Form: The Gunners are navigating a mini-defensive crisis. William Saliba is a major doubt with a knock, and Gabriel Magalhaes is confirmed out with a thigh injury. This means we likely see a makeshift backline. However, Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice are fit and expected to start.
- Why the Home Win? Despite the injuries, Arsenal’s home form is imperious—they are looking for their 8th consecutive home win. Brentford, while coming off a 3-1 win over Burnley, has generally been poor on the road against the “Big Six.” With Brentford missing key players like Fabio Carvalho and Josh Dasilva, Arsenal’s attacking firepower (averaging 2.4 goals per home game) should simply overpower the Bees.
2. Brighton v Aston Villa
- Prediction: Draw or Aston Villa (Double Chance @ 1.69)
- The Context: This is a battle for the top four. Villa (4th) travels to face Brighton (5th).
- The Stats: Aston Villa is arguably the most in-form team in the country right now, riding a 5-match winning streak across all competitions. Brighton remains unbeaten at the Amex, but they have drawn two of their last four matches.
- Why Villa? Unai Emery has Villa playing with incredible efficiency. Historically, this fixture favors the visitors—Villa has won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including a 3-0 thrashing in this exact fixture last season. Brighton’s high line is risky against Villa’s rapid transitions. Getting Villa not to lose at 1.69 odds is tremendous value given their current momentum.
3. Leeds United v Chelsea
- Prediction: Chelsea Win (1.93)
- The Context: A team in freefall vs. a team finding its groove. Leeds sits 18th in the relegation zone, while Chelsea has climbed to 3rd.
- The Stats: Leeds has lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding goals for fun (11 conceded in that span). Their defensive organization is non-existent. Chelsea, conversely, is unbeaten in their last 6 matches.
- Why the Away Win? Chelsea has dominated this H2H recently, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters. Leeds’ desperate need for points often forces them to overcommit, which plays perfectly into the hands of Chelsea’s counter-attacking threats like Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson. The quality gap here is too wide to ignore; 1.93 is a steal for a top-3 side playing a relegation candidate.
4. Liverpool v Sunderland
- Prediction: GG / Yes (Both Teams to Score @ 1.82)
- The Context: A surprising table-neighbor clash! Sunderland (7th) is actually one spot above Liverpool (8th) in the table.
- The Stats: Liverpool snapped a 3-game losing streak with a win over West Ham, but their defense at Anfield has been uncharacteristically shaky, losing 2 of their last 3 home games. Sunderland is fearless, fresh off a 3-2 comeback win against Bournemouth.
- Why GG? Liverpool’s defense is currently leaking chances, and they rarely keep clean sheets when under pressure. Sunderland has scored in their last 4 matches and will have zero fear attacking a vulnerable Liverpool backline. Expect Liverpool to score (they always do at Anfield), but don’t count on a clean sheet.
5. Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid
- Prediction: GG / Yes (Both Teams to Score @ 1.67)
- The Context: Real Madrid (2nd) travels to the hostile San Mamés to face Bilbao (8th).
- The Stats: Real Madrid is unbeaten in their last 6, but look at their recent away scorelines: 3-4 vs Olympiacos, 1-1 vs Girona, 2-2 vs Elche. They are scoring for fun but conceding in almost every away game.
- Why GG? Athletic Bilbao at home is a different beast compared to their away form. They feed off the crowd energy and press high. With Madrid’s recent defensive lapses on the road (conceding 7 goals in their last 3 away trips), Bilbao is highly likely to score. Madrid, with Mbappé and Vinicius, are a lock to score themselves. This has 1-1 or 1-2 written all over it.
Ticket Summary
- Total Odds: 14.28
- Sportybet Code: QJL1NQ
- Bet9ja Code: 3RFSZBT
- Potential Return: ₦14,275.60 (on a ₦1,000 stake)
We’ve mixed a high-confidence home banker (Arsenal) with value plays on in-form teams (Villa/Chelsea) and statistical trends (GG in Liverpool/Madrid games).
Stake responsibly, and let’s secure this midweek green! – Binoculars
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