Arteta’s Arsenal and the Pattern of Greatness

I’ve been one of the few people backing Mikel Arteta for the last four seasons. I saw his growth early on, and it still pains me that he’s doing it for Arsenal and not Manchester United.

Before last season ended, I said it was better for United to reach the Champions League semifinals, like Arsenal, than to win the Europa League. But many people mocked Arsenal’s progress, believing a minor trophy was more important.

What many don’t understand is that football is a pattern. You can easily spot a team making progress and predict how far they are likely to go.

The data proves the Arsenal pattern. Just look at their Premier League progression under Arteta; the numbers show a clear, methodical build:

• 2020/21: 8th Place, 61 Points, +16 Goal Difference (The foundation)
• 2021/22: 5th Place, 69 Points, +13 Goal Difference (The climb and integration of new players)
• 2022/23: 2nd Place, 84 Points, +45 Goal Difference (The arrival as genuine contenders)

This isn’t luck. This is a deliberate, methodical increase in points, goals, and on-field dominance, season after season. This is the exact pattern of growth I’m talking about, and it’s the same blueprint that has built all the great teams.

Manchester United didn’t just wake up and win the 2008 Champions League. The squad building started in 2004. We didn’t even win the league until 2007. If you’re in your mid-30s, you’ll remember how we grew, season by season:

• 2004: Rooney joined.
• 2005: Ji-Sung Park was signed.
• 2006: Evra and Vidic came in.
• 2006: We won the Carling Cup, and Ruud van Nistelrooy left.
• 2007: Tevez arrived, and we reached the UCL semifinals.
• 2008: The squad was complete with Nani, Anderson, and Owen Hargreaves.

That team won the Champions League in 2008, reached the final again in 2009, and continued dominating. Quarterfinals in 2010, another final in 2011, and consistent last-eight finishes in 2012, 2013, and 2014.

The core built from 2004 gave us one of the greatest eras in English football, during which we won five league titles.

Now look at Real Madrid. You saw them grow from 2011, playing in the semifinals almost every season, until they finally won it in 2014. Even in 2015, they reached the semis again before Juve and Morata knocked them out. Soon after, they began their legendary three-peat. Madrid remains strong today because Perez knows how to replace key players without losing identity.

Bayern followed the same path. They played several semifinals before winning it in 2020.

Liverpool too. They reached the UCL final in 2018, lost, then returned in 2019 and lifted the trophy. The next season, they conquered England.

Manchester City’s rise followed the same pattern. They reached multiple semifinals before winning it all, dominating both in Europe and domestically.

Now look back at Arsenal’s statistics. That three-year progression is the clearest sign you can have. If they can keep their core and resist the urge to sell, they will dominate the Premier League until Saka and Ødegaard hit their early thirties. I believe they will win the league at least three times and add a Champions League title to it.

You can already see how strong they are this season. Arsenal will win either the Premier League or the Champions League, possibly both.

The Champions League is always the best indicator of a team’s progress. If your team reaches the semifinals, go back and study their development over the last three seasons. You’ll always find a pattern of growth and continuity.

Whenever I tell you to watch a player or a team, don’t argue. Football isn’t about emotion. It’s about patterns.

Four years ago, I said Arsenal and Barcelona would dominate Europe. We’re almost there. Barca is fluctuating between brilliance and inconsistency, but Arsenal, backed by the numbers, looks complete.

Bayern seems to have caught up with the shift, but Arsenal is the team to beat. Solid at the back, structured in midfield, and fearless in attack.

Arteta has done a magnificent job building a team capable of greatness.