Yesterday’s ticket was painful, and I will not pretend otherwise. The Paraguay vs Australia game played out 0-0 and that one selection cost us full payment on what was otherwise a clean sweep.

Those of you who used the cut one feature on SportyBet, you already know what happened. You were laughing to the bank. As for me, I watched the first half, saw the game was clumsy and going nowhere near two goals, and I cashed out ₦20,000 from my ₦5,000 stake before the second half started. That decision saved the day. If you are not using the cashout feature on SportyBet, you are leaving money on the table. That lesson is free.

Now we move. Today is Matchday 3 of the World Cup group stage and the pressure on these pitches is different. Teams that are not yet qualified are playing like their lives depend on it, because they do. That creates goals, moments, and value if you know where to look.

The data behind this ticket tells a clear story. Group I alone has averaged over four goals per game across the first four matches, and both Haaland and Mbappe are tied on four goals each heading into Friday’s Norway vs France showdown. That is the kind of firepower that makes Over 2.5 and BTTS picks on that game almost automatic.

Meanwhile, Senegal has scored at least two goals in four of their last six matches, and Iraq have conceded the opening goal in each of their last four fixtures. That data supports backing Senegal to come out firing in the first half when they desperately need goals.

Across Groups G and H, Belgium needs to win to have any hope of progressing, while New Zealand has conceded five goals in their two matches so far and has given up leads in both games. That combination makes New Zealand Over 0.5 goals a solid safety pick on this ticket.