Yesterday did not go the way we planned, and I owe you an honest conversation before we talk about today. The Alpha Prophecy missed, and I take full responsibility for that. No excuses. No cover stories. You trusted this ticket with your money, and it did not deliver. I am sorry for that.

But the best response to a bad day is not to walk away. It is to go back to the data, find the value, and come back sharper. That is exactly what I have done today.

Today’s selections are built around teams that have the quality to cover handicap lines and away sides facing opposition that have shown vulnerability at the back throughout this tournament.

England have already qualified from their group and head into today’s match against Panama having dominated their opening fixtures, making their handicap line a straightforward target for a side with their firepower.

Argentina, the defending World Cup champions, face Jordan in what looks like a mismatch on paper, and the data backs that up.

Colombia enter their clash with Portugal as genuine contenders with attacking quality capable of getting on the scoresheet first against a Portuguese side that has shown defensive lapses in this tournament.

The Congo DR vs Uzbekistan pick leans on Congo’s superiority, while Croatia against Ghana offers the safest route through the Double Chance market given Ghana’s inconsistency at the back.