It is Bastille Day. July 14. And France are playing a World Cup semifinal on it. If you know your football history, you know the French have an emotional relationship with this date, and they are taking on Spain in Dallas tonight in what is already being called the game of the tournament. But before we get to Mbappe and Yamal, there is serious European qualifying business to settle first. Nine qualifying second legs are on the card today, and several of them have data pointing clearly in one direction.

Start with KuPS against Vardar Skopje. This is a UEFA Champions League first qualifying round second leg, and KuPS already won the first leg 2-0 away in Skopje. They are top of the Finnish Veikkausliiga, unbeaten in five with four wins and a draw, scoring 13 goals and conceding just five. They hammered HJK Helsinki 4-0 in their most recent domestic outing and beat Ilves 4-3 before that. Vardar also lost their star midfielder Bosancic to a red card in the first leg, so he is suspended today. KuPS coach Miika Nuutinen is expected to set up a disciplined defensive structure to protect their two-goal lead, while looking to hit Vardar on the break. A home win here is the most logical outcome in the entire qualifying slate today. Sportskeeda

Now for France vs Spain. France head into their third successive World Cup semifinal in outstanding form, having won all six matches at the tournament while scoring 16 goals and eliminating Sweden, Paraguay and Morocco in the knockout rounds.

France have been elite at both ends of the pitch, conceding just 0.97 combined xG across three knockout matches with no goals allowed. Spain, on the other hand, have conceded just one goal all tournament but have needed late Mikel Merino substitutes to score the winner in each of their last two knockout games against Portugal and Belgium.

Only four of Spain’s last 16 games saw both teams score. That is the kind of defensive discipline that makes a straight Spain win far from guaranteed. The Draw or Away Double Chance covers France winning, which is the most likely outcome, and protects us if Spain edge it. What the data does not support is backing Spain as outright favourites against the most clinical attacking side left in this tournament.