Premier League Match Day 8 Predictions

Another Premier League weekend is upon us, and with it, another round of ZonalFootball’s ‘Binocular’s Picks’. But we’re not just picking winners; we’re using advanced metrics from WhoScored, Sofascore, and Fotmob to show you why these scores are the most likely outcomes.

Forget gut feelings and old reputations. This is a breakdown of what the numbers are really telling us ahead of Matchweek 8.

Saturday’s Slate: Breaking Down the Matches

Nottingham Forest 0–2 Chelsea: A Masterclass in Control

This prediction is built on one simple principle: Chelsea’s suffocating possession against Forest’s defensive fragility. The Blues are second in the league for average possession (60.2%), strangling teams into submission.

Forest, meanwhile, is practically inviting disaster, having conceded an alarming 12.3 Expected Goals (xG), the second-worst in the league. This isn’t just bad luck; it’s a pattern of high-risk decision-making, personified by players like Ibrahim Sangaré, who has already conceded two penalties. Expect Chelsea to dominate the ball and exploit those predictable errors for a clean-sheet win.

Brighton 1–2 Newcastle: Where Steel Bests Style

On the surface, this is a toss-up. But dig deeper, and you’ll find that Newcastle’s physicality is the perfect antidote to Brighton’s slick passing game. With 5 clean sheets and a dominating 54.6% aerial duel win rate, Newcastle is built to frustrate technical sides.

Brighton’s best hope for a goal comes from the penalty spot, where they’ve already won a league-high 3 spot-kicks. They’ll likely get one, but it won’t be enough. Newcastle’s disciplined defense and clinical counter-attacks give them the edge in a tight, hard-fought contest.

Burnley 1–1 Leeds: The Stalemate of Strugglers

This is a classic battle of a leaky defense against a toothless attack. Burnley is dead last in the league for xG conceded (13.7), meaning they give up high-quality chances for fun. Leeds, on the other hand, struggles to convert the few chances they create. The result? A perfectly balanced 1-1 draw where both teams show exactly why they’re stuck at the bottom of the table.

Crystal Palace 2–2 Bournemouth: Get Ready for Controlled Chaos

Crystal Palace is an analyst’s dream and a manager’s nightmare. They lead the league in shots on target (5.1 per game) and have created an incredible 26 big chances. The problem? They’ve also missed 18 of them.

This wild inefficiency is precisely why a team like Bournemouth can go to Selhurst Park and match them goal-for-goal. Palace’s high-risk, high-reward style leaves huge gaps at the back, which is perfect for Bournemouth’s counter-attacking setup. The data paints a clear picture: goals, mistakes, and a thrilling 2-2 draw.

Manchester City 2–1 Everton: The Aerial Threat vs. The Machine

City will dominate possession, that’s a given. With 87.3% pass accuracy, they will methodically pick at Everton’s defense. However, Everton has a clear tactical path to a goal: the air. Winning 53.7% of their aerial duels, their best chances will come from set-pieces and crosses, a rare but known weakness in City’s armor. The 2-1 prediction reflects this dynamic: City’s overwhelming control will secure the win, but a single lapse against an aerial assault will cost them their clean sheet.

Sunderland 2–0 Wolves: Momentum Meets Despair

This is the most straightforward prediction of the weekend. Wolves are in a full-blown collapse, sitting rock bottom of the league with the worst team rating (6.41) and a pathetic 6.8 xG for the season. Sunderland, meanwhile, are riding a wave of confidence. This isn’t just about tactics; it’s about psychology. Expect a routine 2-0 home victory.

Fulham 0–3 Arsenal: A Statistical Siege

Arsenal isn’t just top of the table; they’re dominating nearly every meaningful metric, from fewest goals conceded (0.4 per match) to the most touches in the opposition box (249). This is a statistical siege that a mid-table side like Fulham simply cannot survive. With the league’s best defense and a relentless attack, a comfortable 0-3 away win for the Gunners is one of the safest bets of the weekend.

Sunday & Monday Fixtures

Tottenham 2–1 Aston Villa: Where Offense Hits a Wall

Tottenham’s defensive structure gives them the edge here. They excel at shutting down the final third, allowing the fewest shots from inside the box in the entire league. This is a tactical nightmare for Villa, whose game relies on intricate passing to create those exact close-range chances. Villa will find their primary route to goal completely blocked, allowing Spurs to control the game and secure a narrow 2-1 win.

Liverpool 2–2 Manchester United: A Data-Driven Derby Shock ⚡

On paper, this looks like a Liverpool rout. The betting odds, possession stats, and defensive records all point to a comfortable home win.

But the data is screaming a different story.

Manchester United, despite sitting 10th, leads the entire Premier League in Expected Goals (14.1) and shots per game (15.7). Their problem hasn’t been creating chances; it’s been finishing them. That kind of statistical pressure almost always corrects itself, and what better time for that to happen than in a chaotic, emotional derby where form goes out the window? Both teams have the firepower, and United’s underlying numbers validate the 2-2 shocker.

West Ham 1–3 Brentford: A Counter-Attacking Masterclass

West Ham is in crisis mode, sitting 19th and leaking goals. Their desperation to push forward and attack plays directly into Brentford’s hands. Brentford are transition specialists, having already scored 3 goals from counter-attacks this season. The 1-3 “upset” is statistically justified: West Ham will leave space, and Brentford will punish it ruthlessly.

Final Verdict: Our Confidence Rating

After cross-referencing the picks with the data, here’s the bottom line:

Highest Confidence Picks:

• Arsenal 3-0: A statistical mismatch.
• Chelsea 2-0: Control vs. Chaos.
• Man City 2-1: Quality wins out, but not perfectly.
• Sunderland 2-0: A simple case of form vs. collapse.

High-Variance (But Data-Backed) Picks:

• Liverpool 2-2 Man Utd: The numbers point to a regression to the mean for United’s attack.
• West Ham 1-3 Brentford: A perfect tactical trap set by Brentford.

In a league decided by the finest of margins, understanding these underlying metrics is no longer just an advantage; it’s the new standard. The teams that ignore their data will be left behind, and so will the fans who try to predict their results.